Can Fusion Arrive in Time to Meet Net-Zero?

Fusion energy has been a scientific exploration topic for over 70 years. Considered as the cleanest solution to address the issue of global warming, fusion has yet to be experienced by the public. Fusion is currently in an intensive development phase, with no clear timeline for when this technology will be available to the public. If fusion truly is the key to solving the climate crisis, can fusion arrive to help us meet the global net-zero target before the deadline in 2050?

Why Net-Zero and 2050 Matter?

Net-Zero refers to the effort to eliminate carbon emission in the atmosphere. The Paris Agreement targets achieving net-zero by 2050. To achieve this, a fundamental transformation in global energy production and consumption–the primary sources of carbon emissions– is necessary. Currently, the world is actively reducing emission by transitioning to cleaner energy sources, which has yielded positive results with 40.9% of energy needs being met by these sources.

Fusion, with the ability to replicate the process of powering the sun, is seen as a potential game-changer for the future of clean energy, despite currently being in the experimental stage and far from commercialization.

Where is Fusion Today

The development of fusion is currently in the research, development, and construction phase. In 2022, the National Ignition Facility (NIF) successfully created a fusion reaction with net energy gain, proving fusion’s potential to produce more energy than required–a key milestone in the development of fusion technology.

The ITER as the world's largest fusion reactor is still under construction. Although various research reactors already exist, no commercial fusion reactors are yet available for public use. However, progress are being made, Commonwealth Fusion System (CFS) has successfully demonstrated SPARC– the world’s first fusion device that produces plasmas, and currently is building ARC –a potential fusion power plant capable of generating 400 MW of clean, zero-carbon net electricity, and expected to be completed by 2030.

Timeline of Fusion

Fusion is projected to be commercially viable between 2035 and 2045. While the construction of supporting infrastructure may be feasible, the real challenge also lies in the public adoption. Beside having to develop the materials that can survive the extreme heat to produce the fusion, raising awareness about fusion to the public is needed. Increasing public knowledge about the safety and environmental benefits of fusion energy is crucial to ensure the technology is well-received when ready for deployment– so the transition is smooth later.

The Future Impact–If It Arrives in Time

If fusion is successfully commercialized, it will have a significant impact on the future of energy. It offers limitless sources of clean energy with abundant resources. Unlike weather dependent clean energy sources, such as solar and wind, fusion can be produced continuously with very low or near-zero emissions. Fusion will reduce dependence on high-carbon energy sources and accelerate the global journey to net-zero.

Are We Investing Enough?

Compared to investments in the other clean energy resources, fusion still receives relatively small investment. As of 2024, the global investment in fusion energy is only around $7.1 billion, whereas combined investments in solar and wind have reached over $3.1 trillion. A huge gap that needs to be filled, to reach the development of other clean energy resources.

To reach the commercialization state, significant increases in public and private investment on fusion are necessary. The good news is, investors' interest is growing rapidly, many investors are funding experimental fusion reactors and startups. Initiatives such as the UK Government’s investment of £20 million to ‘Starmaker One’, a private fusion investment fund, aimed to encourage further investment in the future.

Fusion Can Still Be In Time

Although projections vary and uncertainties remain about fusion’s timeline, accelerated research and strategic investment could still allow fusion to play a role in reaching the 2050 net-zero target.

Its incredible potential makes the case clear. Fusion development must continue, so the world can reap its benefits when it’s ready.