Why Türkiye Is Falling Behind in the Race to Net-Zero
Despite strong innovation and investment momentum, Türkiye continues to face significant challenges in accelerating climate change. While the country has made efforts in recent years to reduce fossil fuels and expand clean energy, fossil fuels still dominate its energy mix. This heavy reliance placed Türkiye far from achieving its net-zero goals.
The path to net-zero depends on two critical races: the race for clean energy generation for electricity, and the race for electrification to provide final energy. Both races are essentials, but can Türkiye balance these efforts to achieve their net-zero ambition?
The Race for Clean Power Generation: Progress and Persistent Gaps
Türkiye has shown remarkable progress in expanding its clean energy capacity, becoming an emerging global player. Installed solar capacity surged to 19.7 GW by the end of 2024, making a 76% increase in just one year. Similarly, wind capacity also exceeded 13 GW. Combined with hydropower, clean energy has consistently accounted for over 40% of Türkiye’s total electricity generation in recent years, and even reached 80% on certain days in 2024. The country now leads Europe in hydropower capacity growth, a critical step toward decarbonizing its power sector.
However, behind these impressive achievements lie substantial challenges. The pace of clean energy expansion has not kept up with the surging electricity demand. Türkiye experienced one of the highest increases in electricity demand globally in 2024. Over the past five years, electricity demand increased by 42 TWh, while the addition of wind and solar generation added only 31 TWh. The resulting gap was filled with fossil fuels, revealing that the current rate of decarbonization is insufficient to meet Türkiye net-zero target.
The Race for Electrification: Challenges in Decarbonizing Final Energy Supply
Electrification is critical to eliminate fossil fuels in sectors that consume energy directly, such as transportation, industry, and buildings. This is a different race from clean power generation, and Türkiye faces several barriers in this domains
Fossil Fuels Dependency in Final Consumption: Globally, fossil fuels still supply 95% of transport energy, 56% in industry, and 37% in buildings, a pattern also relevant to Türkiye. This signals the massive transformation needed to shift energy consumption from fossil fuel combustion to clean electricity.
Infrastructure Gaps: Electric Vehicle (EV) adoption is being promoted to reduce transport emissions. However, limited manufacturing capacity, meeting only 20-30% of demand, present a significant barrier to scaling infrastructure and installations within Türkiye.
Sector-Specific Challenges: Certain sectors, such as heavy industry, rely on fossil fuels for high-temperature processes. Electrification in these sectors is highly complex, requiring major technological breakthroughs and large-scale investment. In addition, consumer adoption of these new technologies will require strong incentives and behavioral shifts.
Necessary Steps, Yet Insufficient Pace for Net-Zero
Türkiye’s strategic shift towards clean electrification does offer clear economic benefits. In 2024, solar and wind power saved the country an estimated $12 billion in energy import cost, highlighting the fiscal advantages of domestic clean energy generation. However, fossil fuels still account for about 70% of Türkiye’s total energy use. Despite cost savings, the absolute volume of fossil imports continues to exert pressure on the national budget.
Türkiye also holds vast clean energy potential that can generate value and support job creation. Domestic investment in clean energy projects ensures that economic benefits remain within the country. Still, the real challenge lies in scaling up quickly enough. Clean energy deployment is not yet fast enough to match soaring demand, making this shortfall one of the country’s primary obstacles in reaching net-zero.
Key Obstacles and the Path Forward
While Türkiye has demonstrated determination and progress, several significant structural and policy barriers explain why achieving the 2053 net-zero dream remains a formidable challenges
Grid Infrastructure Constraints: One of the biggest obstacles is the lack of adequate transmission and distribution capacity. In a 15-month period, 65% of grid connection applications at the transmission level in Türkiye could not be approved due to limited capacity. High cost and long construction timeline limit the grid’s ability to integrate large volumes of new clean energy.
Continued Reliance on Coal and Fossil Subsidies: Türkiye remains as Europe’s largest coal-powered electricity producer, and 61% of this coal generation relies on imports. The absence of a clear coal phase-out plan, combined with fossil fuel subsidies and no carbon pricing, sends mixed signals to the market, slowing down the energy transitions.
Financing Gaps and Policy Inconsistencies: While investments are growing, the capital needed for full-scale energy transformation is enormous. Long-term policy certainty and stronger financing mechanisms are essential to attract sufficient domestic and international investment. Regulatory inconsistencies continue to deter investors.
Slow Electrification of Final Sectors: Achieving net-zero requires transport, industry, and buildings to shift away from fossil fuel to electricity. This will require robust incentives, supporting infrastructure, and mechanisms to reduce high upfront cost for customers and industries.
Balancing the Races for Türkiye Net-Zero Future
Türkiye journey to net-zero is fundamentally a dual race: to secure clean electricity supply and to decarbonize final energy use through electrification. While the country has made progress in boosting its clean energy capacity and has seen tangible economic gains, the existing challenges show that the current pace is not fast enough.
Persistent dependence on fossil fuels, especially outside the electricity sector, combined with infrastructure bottlenecks and inconsistent policies, hinders Türkiye from fully realizing its net-zero dream. To balance these two races and achieve its 2053 target, Türkiye needs to drastically accelerate the pace of clean energy deployment, invest massively in grid modernization, implement a clear fossil fuel phase-out strategy, and introduce strong incentives to support electrification across all sectors. Without these bold and coordinated steps, net-zero will remain a distant aspiration, not an achievable reality.
