Re-evaluating Türkiye’s Net-Zero 2053: Promises and Challenges in the National Energy and Climate Plan
With an ambitious commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2053, all eyes are on Türkiye’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). This strategic document serves as Türkiye’s roadmap for managing its energy transition, emission reduction, and climate resilience through 2030 and beyond.
The latest update to Türkiye’s NECP reflects a mix of progress and persistent challenges. It expands renewable energy targets, emphasizes energy efficiency, and introduces plans for a national carbon market. Yet, as global scrutiny intensifies, particularly from Türkiye’s major trading partner, the European Union, critical gaps remain in implementation, sector-specific detail, and long-term policy enforcement.
So, what’s new and what’s still missing in Türkiye’s National Energy and Climate Plan?
What’s New?
Ambitious Renewable Energy Targets
Türkiye set an impressive target of 38.2 GW of installed renewable power capacity by 2035, including robust growth in solar and wind energy. This expansion will be supported by a legislative reform designed to unlock clean energy investments. This framework includes faster permitting, improved access to land, and strengthened incentives for investors or developers interested in clean energy projects. These measures aim to shift Türkiye’s energy base away from imported fossil fuels and towards locally generated renewable energy. Furthermore, Türkiye is actively exploring energy storage solutions and better grid integration to address the intermittent nature of these renewable sources, ensuring a stable supply.
Stronger Energy Efficiency Focus
Türkiye’s 2030 Energy Efficiency Strategy and Action Plan commits to reduce energy consumption by 16%, translating into savings of nearly $ 20 billion. The plan focuses on the building, transport, and industrial sectors, incorporating initiatives like smart metering, insulation programs, and digital energy management systems. This updated NECP also promises greater flexibility, support for energy storage, and better integration of distributed resources, positioning Turkiye for a modern and resilient grid.
Nuclear and Hybrid System
The plan identifies 2025 as a pivotal year, especially with the expected launch of the first unit of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant. This long-developed project will help diversify the country's power supply and reduce its reliance on imported fossil fuels. Additionally, hybrid systems such as solar-wind pairing are being encouraged as part of Türkiye’s new electricity market design, boosting grid flexibility. However, it's worth noting that nuclear energy often remains the subject of debate, with some raising concerns about safety and waste management.
What’s Still Missing?
No Clear Coal Phase-Out Plan
Even though coal usage is already declining, it still contributes over 35% of electricity generation. The NECP does not include a definitive coal phase-out strategy, raising concerns about its alignment with the net-zero pathway. Without a scheduled and just transition, coal dependence may persist longer than is sustainable, potentially hindering Türkiye’s access to larger international climate finance and sustainable investments.
Subnational Actors Are Overlooked
Local governments, especially large cities like Istanbul, Izmir, and Ankara, have begun crafting climate plans. However, the NECP barely mentions the role of municipalities or provincial authorities in the clean energy transition, missing a crucial opportunity to align national and local action. Engaging subnational actors is vital as they often interact directly with communities and possess a deep local understanding of energy and climate needs.
Non-Binding Transport Sector Targets
The transportation sector is one of the largest contributors to emissions, yet the NECP does not present specific and binding emission reduction targets for this sector. This leaves a major emissions contributor largely unaddressed. Without a clear strategy for sustainable transport transition, achieving overall climate goals will be significantly more difficult.
Why It Matter
Türkiye’s updated NECP matters far beyond its borders. With the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entering into force, Türkiye’s exporters, especially in carbon-intensive sectors like cement and steel, must adapt or risk losing competitiveness. A clear, enforceable NECP could help safeguard these sectors while attracting new investment in green industries.
Moreover, the country’s credibility in climate leadership, especially in its region, hinges on its ability to bridge the gap between ambition and action. As one of the few major economies outside the EU with a formal net-zero target, Türkiye has a chance to lead. This ripple effects of Türkiye’s climate policies could influence nations across the Mediterranean and the Middle East, making it a critical example for regional energy transitions.
Towards the Greener Turkiye
Türkiye’s updated NECP is a necessary and mostly encouraging step toward a cleaner, more sustainable energy future. It demonstrates stronger commitments on renewables, energy efficiency, and market reform. However, without a clear coal phase-out, concrete carbon pricing policy, or binding transport targets, the NECP risks falling short of its potential.
As the 2030 deadline draws closer, Türkiye must sharpen its climate governance, through interim milestones, legal enforcement, and transparent monitoring. It must also empower subnational governments and the private sector to be part of the solution. The road to 2053 is long, and this plan is just the beginning.
Will Türkiye be able to transform these grand ambitions into concrete action, or will its net-zero promise remain merely a number on paper?
Get our full Türkiye Energy Report for a deeper dive into policies, projections, and investment trends
